Migration as an indicator of growth

If carefully studied migration data could give the best results possible about the relative growth of geography. It instinctively explains the migration of people from rural areas to cities, migration of people across states and countries. Whenever there is growth, there is job creation and increased demand for people which leads to such migration.

It explains why Bihar and the other BiMaRU states are the biggest exporters of manpower. It explains the migration of individuals to the US and European nations from across the world. One may always argue that migration will also be due to the standard of living and the difference in purchasing power parity leading to increased value of remittances. However, that will only be a part of the reason and such reasons would be balanced by an individual’s inertia to move across geographies. So we may assume that the demand supply equation would be the major reason for migration.

Taking this simple philosophy, we may make many simple conclusions.

Bihar today is one of the fastest growing states. However, the migration has only reduced and not stopped or reversed. Thus the growth story is still not strong enough and may take some time to see a real reversal of trend. Any comment before that may be premature.

Gujarat has seen a huge uptrend in industry and thus a rise in GDP as well as migration to the state. However, it is also a great exporter of people meaning trade opportunities (the core competence of the locals) are growing elsewhere with lesser competition. Thus migration may not only show the growth of geography but also points at growth in sectors. Another example would be how industry migration gives insights on the same; thus people from all industries moved to IT at a given time signifying real experiential growth.

With all the talks of the (once) high growth rate of India, migration to India is still weak. On the other hand, though a relatively closed market, china has seen a better influx of people through manufacturing setups of global players.

India still looks upon US and the European nations as a dream destination. Thus the growth seen by the India is still not strong enough considering its talent pool. Also, it may point that US and European growth stories are still not dead.

The simple point is though numbers may sometimes tell a different story; migration data reveals the real and as-felt growth around us. It not only gives a preview on the growth of a region but also gives pointers on industry and growth of a particular social stratum.